Photography by:
  • Amanda van der Walt

Modelling urban spatial change in the GCR (2015)

  • Complete

This project investigated what modelling is currently being undertaken to analyse urban change and predict future urban development. The results were compiled into a research report which, together with significant urban spatial data collated by the GCRO, may inform the development of a future urban spatial change model.

The project focussed on the production of a research report that investigates what urban change modelling or simulation is taking place within South Africa. Each modelling project was reviewed and key personnel were interviewed. International modelling trends were also assessed. The project produced a GCRO Occasional Paper, which provides a critical analysis of the modelling and data that was being utilised and concludes with recommendations on:

  • What modelling methodology, software and visualization tools might be appropriate for a GCRO urban change modelling project that could also benefit and inform the Gauteng Planning Commission G2055 project;
  • What data and variables are available and should be utilised in the modeling;
  • The comparable unit of analysis to be used in the modelling.


Wray, C. & Cheruiyot, K. (2015) ‘Key Challenges and Potential Urban Modelling Opportunities in South Africa, with Specific Reference to the Gauteng City-Region’, South African Journal of Geomatics, 4 (1).

Wray, C., Musango, J., Damon, K. & Cheruiyot, K. (2013) ‘Modelling urban spatial change: a review of international and South African modelling initiatives’, GCRO Occasional Paper 6.

Last updated 20 October 2017.


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